NFL prop bets can offer huge value. We have identified a few that are offering value for Sunday’s main slate based on Week 5 player projections. Let us get started.

NFL betting continues into Week 5. We are busy looking into every market in search of great numbers and value so you don’t have to! Today, we are doubling down on a Seattle receiver, try predicting a new backfield competition, and finding the best prop bet for Cincinnati as a 13-point underdog. We break down the best NFL team and player props and bring you some of the favorite free picks and predictions for Week 5.

Raiders at Chiefs Props

Josh Jacobs Under 81.5 Rush Yards (-113)

Dating back to last season, this is Jacobs’ breakdown of rushing yards based on Raiders losses and wins:

Losses (9): 75.4
Wins (8): 75.4

The Raiders are 11-point underdogs against the Chiefs and they could be forced into a pass-heavy game script early on. Jacobs will be effective as a runner in the first half, but become more of a pass-catcher in the second as the Raiders play catch-up.

Bet down to 78.5

Rams at Washington Props

Logan Thomas Over 2.5 Receptions (-167)

Logan Thomas Over 3.5 Receptions (+136)

There are reasons why people want to invest in Thomas catching four or more passes this week.

First, he has done so in three out of four games so far. Second, he has consistently run a route on 85-95% dropbacks in every game. Third, Kyle Allen is replacing Dwayne Haskins, and that is a move that could benefit Thomas.

Koerner: Best Bets for Week 5

Allen has proven to be a more accurate passer than Haskins (that is not a difficult task), so it can only help Thomas’s 46.4% catch rate (fifth-lowest among qualified pass-catchers). Allen also showed a tendency for targeting his tight ends last season with the Panthers.

Furthermore, backup tight end Marcus Baugh is expected to miss Week 5 and Terry McLaurin is likely to face Jalen Ramsey for much of the game, leading to a few more targets this week for Thomas.

Bet to 2.5 (-190)
Bet to 3.5 (+125)

Jaguars at Texans Props

David Johnson Under 3.5 Receptions (-182)

Despite the massive juice on this NFL prop bets, there is still a ton of value on the under.

David has yet to grab four balls in a game this season, despite the 0-4 Texans being in a pass-heavy trailing game script in every game so far — and that was with Duke Johnson missing two of the four games. Well, Duke returned last week and cut significantly into DJ’s routes run per drop back — he ran on only 38% in Week 4 after averaging an 82% rate in Weeks 1 to 3.

DJ should play more of the 2019 Carlos Hyde role in Sunday’s game with the Texans favored by 5.5 points, which should allow the team to use him heavily on the ground and use Duke as a change-of-pace/third-down back.

Bet down to 3.5 (-250)

Cardinals at Jets Props

Larry Fitzgerald Under 35.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

At 37 years old, Fitzgerald is in the middle of his inevitable decline
DeAndre Hopkins is the focal point of this passing offense now while Andy Isabella and Christian Kirk are both trending up in terms of health and playing time.

Fitz has run a route on 90% of passing plays the past two weeks and posted a combined stat line of 3/4/0. He should bounce back this week, but it will be hard for him to clear this number considering his average depth of target at 4.4 yards.

It’s hard to project Fitz to see too much positive retrogression considering he is pretty much maxed out in playing time and targets as is — he has not been lucky in any metric other than being able to play football at 37.

Bet down to 32.5

John Hightower Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

This is more of a bet on the opportunity.

With Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson out again this week, we can bank on Hightower for running a route on 80-85% of pass plays. He has been targeted on only 9% of his routes run so far — a rate that we can expect to regress upward given the lack of competition for targets right now.

Bet to 26.5